- It currently appears that the protestors are not strong enough to completely topple the regime, although defections from the military may be increasing. Gaddafi’s ability to re-take lost cities and towns in his Western heartland will be a significant indicator of comparative strength.
- Key members of the regime remain in place and loyal, whilst the most important and powerful tribes continue to watch events and have not declared for either side.
- Basic supplies are now running short. Whilst Gaddafi’s plan to bring about a destructive vortex in the east has not entirely worked, the disorganised and inexperienced civil societal structures there will face challenges bringing in food and other necessary resources.
- Gaddafi previously threatened the EU that he would turn the east over to al-Qaeda if he did not get support. The jihadists are also strong and will oppose Western intervention or democratisation. Their full impact will probably not be felt at this time, instead they are likely to be organising and equipping themselves. Western military action is therefore fraught with difficulty, and the UN will almost certainly have to set the context.