Mumbai blasts show continuing dangers to business travellers in India
UK threat level lowered to 'severe', lone actors still a major concern; al-Qaeda encourages cyber attacks more>>
Cyber and information security
Anonymous hacktivist collective continues to drive forward anti-security operation, launches own leaks sites; increasing cross-over with traditional activist groups, possible political launch
Arrests in Italy and Switzerland aim to disrupt local Anonymous network responsible for attacks on large corporates and government
State actors continue to target US and interest group websites; South Korea expands defences following attack by North, which may have been both war rehearsal and capability demonstration
New botnet is not as invulnerable as claimed, but demonstrates significant evolution in tactics
Single issue violence, extremism and protests
Fate of anti-cuts occupation style protests to be decided in November; anarchist group finds its feet
English Defence League continues city demonstrations; disruption to city centre business for foreseeable future
Stop Huntingdon Animal Cruelty (SHAC) shifts emphasis of campaign; militant animal rights attacks continue
Greenpeace strikes again with successful viral social media tactics; new 'warrior ship' aims to cause trouble to alleged environment damagers
UK threat level lowered to 'severe', lone actors still a major concern; al-Qaeda encourages cyber attacks
Last week the terror threat level was dropped, reflecting the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre's view that the killing of Osama bin Laden and other leading al-Qaeda figures had helped to lower the overall danger to the UK. Whilst some plots are still likely to tie back to Pakistan or al-Qaeda franchises in Yemen or Somalia, our previous assessment was that these organisations have more pressing issues closer to home at this time. The major threat therefore remains the more unpredictable one of lone actors, who are hopefully more likely to be limited in scope. In this regard open-source training remains one of the most serious issues, and a man was arrested by the West Midlands Counter-Terror Unit for distributing this sort of material. This shows that items such as the "Complete Course" â€“ al-Qaeda's bomb-making training course in English-language pdf form â€“ are still available and circulating.
Meanwhile, one of the main....
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It currently appears that the protestors are not strong enough to completely topple the regime, although defections from the military may be increasing. Gaddafi’s ability to re-take lost cities and towns in his Western heartland will be a significant indicator of comparative strength.
Key members of the regime remain in place and loyal, whilst the most important and powerful tribes continue to watch events and have not declared for either side.
Basic supplies are now running short. Whilst Gaddafi’s plan to bring about a destructive vortex in the east has not entirely worked, the disorganised and inexperienced civil societal structures there will face challenges bringing in food and other necessary resources.
Gaddafi previously threatened the EU that he would turn the east over to al-Qaeda if he did not get support. The jihadists are also strong and will oppose Western intervention or democratisation. Their full impact will probably not be felt at this time, instead they are likely to be organising and equipping themselves. Western military action is therefore fraught with difficulty, and the UN will almost certainly have to set the context.
Russia’s emergency services are responding to at least one probable suicide bomb attack at the country’s main international airport. Currently at least 35 fatalities are reported by Russian authorities from an attack carried out in the international arrivals lounge nearby to the Asia café.